No Pot Of Gold In
Commercial Constellations: Despite Concentrating
70% Of Satellite Demand, To Account For Only 8%
Of The Global Market Value In The Next Decade
Commercial constellations
set new standards for the industry in numbers
but GEO comsat and government still drive the
biggest demand in manufacturing and launch
revenues.
9 December 2020
In its latest analysis of
satellite manufacturing and launch services,
“Satellites to be Built and Launched by 2029",
Euroconsult anticipates almost a quintupling in
satellite demand in the next decade with an
average of 1,250 satellites to be launched on a
yearly basis. In comparison to the 260 yearly
satellites launched in the previous decade, this
skyrocketing number cements the structural
changes occurring in the market and the
industry, not only in the number of satellites
but also in terms of satellite missions and
operators, both governmental and commercial.
“The satellite industry
will indeed experience a quick and radical
transformation when it comes to satellite
numbers. However, despite this spike in
satellite demand, we are looking at half of the
market concentrated around a handful of mega
constellations. In addition, some being
vertically integrated means that their
procurement will not be done on an open
competition basis. Nevertheless, GEO comsat
remains the leading segment pulling 1/3 of the
market revenues, but here too we anticipate -20%
drop in operational assets by 2029.” argued
Maxime Puteaux, Editor-in-Chief of this research
product and Principal advisor at Euroconsult.
Several key market trends are catalysing the
satellite industry’s structural changes:
•For the first time in a single year more
than 1000 satellites were launched, of which 70%
from Starlink alone. This symbolic threshold
will become a new standard for the next ten
years with significant annual variations mainly
driven by the replacement of the commercial
constellations.
•The orders of GEO comsat have been
exceptionally high in 2020 at 18 units, of which
13 for the accelerated C-band clearance plan of
the FCC in the USA. In addition, proof of a
structural slowdown of that market in satellite
numbers, GEO comsat replacement is also
challenged by fleet rationalization approaches,
in-orbit life extension and transitioning of
some of the traffic to upcoming NGSO
constellations. Manufacturers’ GEO comsat
product portfolios are diversifying, ranging
from a few hundred kilograms to 6 Tons VHTS.
Digital payloads become the rule for a
data-centric market (rather than a broadcasting
market).
•Beyond the “commercial space” momentum,
governments will remain the first customers with
80% satellite manufacturing and launch revenues
for the period. Investments by defence operators
is driven by security applications and a growing
endorsement of smallsats, COTS and
constellations while civil agencies focus on
large Earth observation systems.
•Access to the space industry is
diversifying with a few smallsat-dedicated
launchers now operational and more expected to
perform maiden flights in 2021. A new generation
of GTO-capable launchers is expected to enter
the market within the next two years with a
design-to-cost approach. Meanwhile, SpaceX
masters reusability and executes Starlink’s
launches at marginal cost, with Falcon 9
recovery and reuse becoming a standard endorsed
by customer.