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Mobile, satellite
players clash on the
spectrum crunch
Mobile and satellite
players have faced off
on the prospect of a
‘spectrum crunch’ at the
Australian
Communications and Media
Authority’s Radcomms
2013 conference. Via a
series of short
presentations, the
different sides of the
industry engaged in a
spirited debate as to
whether such a crunch
where ongoing massive
growth in mobile
broadband piles
ever-increasing pressure
on existing spectrum
allocations – would even
come to pass, and how
spectrum policy should
be set as a result.
“Is there really a
spectrum crunch?”
queried NewSat CTO David
Ball. “I think the work
that the ACMA is doing
with Analysys Mason [to
prepare a spectrum
demand and market
forecast for Australia
out to 2025] will be
very interesting, when
it comes out. There are
a lot of elements to
consider... I find it
fascinating that some of
those demand curves are
starting to flatten out
already, as people look
at how much they can
afford to download on
particular devices.”
“The 700MHz
[allocations of spectrum
at auction] were not
fully taken up here, and
I think
there were a number of
reasons, some technical,
some political... but
[the spectrum crunch] is
an interesting
assumption, if we think
it through. Where is
this demand, does this
demand really exist
around the world, is it
just in Australia, is it
just in populated areas;
how do we, as an
industry, manage that?
And beyond the
assumption, what else is
there that could be
inhibiting terrestrial
growth?” he added,
citing the sometimes
high cost of large
downloads over cellular
networks.
The challenge,
remarked Ball, was the
“insatiable drive from
the terrestrial lobby to
acquire more and more
spectrum.”
“Unfortunately, their
basic assumption coming
into the room is ‘what
are you giving up, and
where is it’, rather
than ‘can you give it up
and are you using it’,”
he said. “So a different
conversation needs to
take place... thinking
about where cooperation
can take place, where
sharing can take place
and where sharing cannot
take place.”
“From the satellite
industry perspective, we
need to look at
preserving existing
users wherever possible;
satellite is a critical
communications
infrastructure for the
Pacific, for Australia
and for the world. And
we need to look at how
we can share effectively
without crippling
certain elements of the
industry for the benefit
of what I think, in many
cases, is an unproven
demand cycle of WiMax
and international mobile
telecommunications
services.”
Speaking for the mobile
sector, Australian
Mobile
Telecommunications
Association CEO Chris
Althaus tackled head-on
the concerns of
satellite players and
other spectrum holders.
“I sense the
nervousness in the room:
‘these rapacious,
all-consuming mobile
guys are here again!
They just want our real
estate!’ I don’t think
it’s quite that bad, and
I think we’re far more
reasonable than that,”
he said. “But it’s not
us who wants your
spectrum; we’re just the
conduit. There’s demand
out there, whether it’s
from a doctor, from a
nurse, from a teacher,
from a financial
institution, from a
bank, from a law
enforcement agency,
there’s demand that is
growing and developing.
And people... want to
take advantage of this
phenomenon.”
“Demand is high, and
the ability to be
efficient and effective
in using this is
critical. All options
are on the table, as far
as we’re concerned. Some
tough thinking about
sharing; hard to do, but
it could well be an
option,” Althaus
continued. “[But] demand
is there. If you get
nervous and you try to
disprove it, then fine –
have a go! But it is
there, and whether it’s
going to be as steep as
we expect, not sure; but
you look at the
evidence, [the numbers
of] consumer devices and
their use, you can
guarantee that it’s not
going south anytime
soon. So let’s look at a
roadmap, let’s look at
regulatory form, and
above all, let’s have a
sensible debate about
how this precious
resource is shared, and
how [it’s] deployed for
the economy’s, and
society’s, maximum
benefit.”
ANALYSYS MASON:
Analysys Mason itself
revealed some
preliminary findings
from its ongoing
forecast work, which
takes into account only
commercial wireless
access services and
rests on a number of
assumptions, including
that the mobile data
growth pattern will
begin to tail off within
a few years. Senior
manager Philip Bates
said that by 2020, on
its base-case traffic
projections, Analysys
Mason is forecasting
that Australian
operators on aggregate
will need some 16,500 2G
capacity sites; 7,200
pure 3G coverage sites,
7,300 3G coverage sites
with capacity upgrades
and just 500 dedicated
capacity sites; and
14,600 4G pure coverage
sites, 7,000 4G sites
with capacity upgrades
and 2,300
capacity sites. (Those
figures, he noted, will
total more than the
number of unique cell
sites since many sites
support multiple
technologies.)
However, Bates also
noted even that in a
scenario with 2020
traffic demand
projections increased by
50%, the total market
would still only require
operators to upgrade 900
more 3G sites and build
600 new 3G capacity
sites; plus upgrading
1,800 more 4G sites and
building an extra 2,200
4G pure capacity sites –
suggesting, he said,
that “there [will be]
still a fair amount of
spectrum available in
2020.”
On the other hand,
Ericsson group director
of spectrum and radio
technology strategy
Hakan Ohlsen cited a new
report, prepared in the
run-up for the 2015
World Radiocommunication
Conference, that
suggested a need for
between 1340 and 1960MHz
for international mobile
telecommunications use
by 2020.
Petroc Wilton,
COMMSDAY
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